The chart that predicts recessions

A chart called the "yield curve" has predicted every US recession over the last 50 years. Now it might be predicting another one. Subscribe to our channel! http://goo.gl/0bsAjO Economic experts are starting to warn that a US recession is becoming more likely because of something called the "yield curve." So what s the yield curve? What does it show? And why is it bad if it "inverts?" We visualized the yield curve over the past four decades, to show why it s so good at predicting recessions, and what it actually means when the curve changes. Read more about the yield curve: * Vox s Matt Yglesias has an explainer: https://www.vox.com/2019/8/14/20805404/yield-curve-inversion-recession-10-year-2-year * Here s how the man who discovered this trend, Campbell Harvey, describes the phenomenon: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2019/08/18/how-the-finance-prof-who-discovered-the-inverted-yield-curve-explains-it-to-grandma/#17cadff86cae * The New York Times explains it .... with a football analogy: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/upshot/inverted-yield-curve-bonds-football-analogy.html * We used data from the Federal Reserve to make these charts. Here s the yield curve data day-to-day: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield * And if you really want to dig into historical data, use this tool: https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=H15 Vox.com is a news website that helps you cut through the noise and understand what s really driving the events in the headlines. Check out http://www.vox.com. Watch our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/IZONyE Follow Vox on Facebook: http://goo.gl/U2g06o Or Twitter: http://goo.gl/XFrZ5H